Precisely how does a buyer or seller know when a real estate market most favors buyers or sellers? No buyer wants to pay too much and no seller wants to leave money on the table by pricing too low. The answer is in knowing the market absorption rates.
Property absorption rates in any local real estate market are usually considered the best indicators of whether that market is a sellers’ market, a buyers’ market, or a neutral market. The market is the market and favors no one. But knowing the current real estate market cycle is essential for success as either a buyer or seller.
Sellers’ Market – Absorption Rates 1-4;
Neutral Market – Absorption Rates 5-6;
Buyers’ Market – Absorption Rates greater than 7
The easy-to-understand process of calculating absorption rates for local markets will be helpful to anyone trying to figure out the current real estate cycle and how to formulate a winning buying or selling strategy.
For instance, assume there are currently 100 Single Family Home Lots for sale in a large, single family home community. Of these, 70 are priced at, or below, $45,000. Last month, assume that 5 lots sold for $45,000 or less. The absorption rate would then be 70 divided by 5 , or 14.0. An absorption rate of 14.0 indicates a strong buyer’s market and, that in an unchanged market, it will take 14 months to sell all the hypothetical 70 existing lots listed at or below $45,000.
This basic analysis can be used with most of property types including building lots, homes, condominiums, or even commercial properties. There must, however, be a high enough number of actual transactions to permit statistical analysis. The fewer the actual number of transactions the less statistically significant will be the results. Also, remember that within very broad but weak markets, narrow market segments may be showing non-typical strength.
Market absorption is a very useful tool for anyone trying to best determine how to price their property and what the current market says is a reasonable time period for a sale to be concluded. The absorption rate analysis also helps buyers in that in a buyer’s market a low purchase offer is often a winning strategy.
By: E. Lee Reid
About the Author:
E. Lee Reid is a real estate, construction, hospitality, and travel and leisure expert. He and his companies have successfully built and/or managed thousands of vacation resort condos and homes at multiple resorts in North Carolina and Florida. In recent years he converted several hotels to condo hotels in the Disney World area of Central Florida. He is a widely quoted author and speaker. Reid holds a Master of Business Administration from the University of Memphis and is completing in late 2007 a Master in Hospitality Management program through Cornell University. Reid is a real estate developer, certified General Contractor, Realtor, and Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) candidate. His book, “Marketing Made Easy!” was published by the National Association of Home Builders. Visit with Lee at http://www.eleereid.com
